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If the United Kingdom goes into conflict with the EU, the consequences will be terrible

June 16, 2022

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Economy Desk: The Conservatives promised to implement Brexit before winning the UK general election in 2019. Within a few days,

Economy Desk: The Conservatives promised to implement Brexit before winning the UK general election in 2019. Within a few days, the country officially left the European Union (EU). But that deal is under threat now, and that’s because of the Conservatives.
On 13 June the British government introduced a bill that would give them the power to change a large part of the Northern Ireland Protocol. This part of the agreement still holds Northern Ireland (not Great Britain) in the EU’s single commodity market. According to the protocol, there will be no border control between the islands of Ireland, instead customs and control boundaries will be established in the Irish Sea.

There is no doubt that adherence to the Northern Ireland Protocol is essential for peacekeeping and smooth trade activities between the UK and the EU. However, this has created a lot of bureaucratic complications in transporting goods from the mainland of the United Kingdom to Northern Ireland. For example, if you want to send the beef flavored chutney across the Irish Sea, now you need a veterinarian’s clearance. Such complexities are not only a problem for businesses or consumers, but also for the protocol, which has been strongly opposed by the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), Northern Ireland’s largest pro-union party. The DUP has refused to take part in the all-party government until the issue is resolved. Although a majority of the province’s MPs are in favor of keeping the protocol, the current political situation in Northern Ireland requires unity between both nationalists and unionists.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, however, said they were “ready” to change controversial parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol. However, there is a risk of damaging the country’s reputation as well. At first glance, the move would tarnish the UK’s reputation as a law-abiding state.
The British government is promoting the “doctrine of necessity” to justify changes to parts of the protocol. This doctrine allows states to violate international obligations to deal with ‘serious and imminent dangers’ in their own interests. The UK government is making every effort to legalize protocol amendments, but there are other issues.
The politics of Northern Ireland are very fragile, with the province running almost three years without a transferred government in the last five years. In this case, the British government could have applied Article 16 to suspend the Protocol. But instead the country plans to unilaterally cancel the promise of an agreement on trivial legal grounds.

This is not only embarrassing for the UK but also self-defeating. Boris Johnson’s government says it wants to review the protocol. But bilateral talks are based on mutual trust. Now, instead of bowing to the UK, the EU’s position will be tougher. They are already planning to take legal action against the UK.

Moreover, the bill would face opposition from within the UK, especially from moderate Conservative MPs and the House of Lords. Doubts have been raised as to whether it will pass or not.
It is impossible to say how bad the relationship between the UK and the EU will be on this issue, but the risk of loss is huge. The participation of British scientists in the EU’s Horizon Europe research activities is under threat, and a trade war is not impossible. The balance of power never goes in favor of a small economy.

The UK’s GDP shrunk last April and they have had this problem for a long time. Leaving the EU did little to help the British economy. The Center for European Reform, a think-tank, estimates that the UK economy would be at least 5.2 per cent higher than it was at the end of 2021, had it not been for Brexit. Now the British government has added to the political uncertainty and risk in the country by raising a bill to change the Northern Ireland Protocol.
Of course, the European Union is not completely innocent. Earlier, they had shown flexibility in various issues such as relaxation of drug policy. He could do it again. But now the chances of a realistic solution to the crisis have dwindled, and the London government is responsible.

If the United Kingdom goes into conflict with the EU, the consequences will be terrible

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